While the economy is still struggling, it doesn’t seem to be putting a significant dent in consumer spending in restaurants. According to Paul Westra, managing director of restaurant investment research at Capital One, consumers are only dining out 10 percent less than they were in 2019. He predicts that any recessionary impact on consumer spending is more likely to occur in the second half of this year – so in the meantime, restaurants have an opportunity to maximize profitability and build up a cushion ahead of a possible slowdown. Dynamic pricing may help operators make the most from busy periods and drive traffic during slower periods. In fact, Restaurant Dive includes dynamic pricing among its predicted trends for 2023, saying the ability to adjust pricing based on factors such as weather, time of day, or local events may help protect restaurants’ bottom lines. Just tread lightly on changes. While consumers tend to understand the need for restaurants to inflate prices to compensate for supply shortages, inflation and overall operating costs right now, they may be more cynical about seemingly random shifts in price. Be prepared to answer questions from guests, particularly if they have noticed your business elevating costs for premium ingredients or the costs of taking care of staff.

As consumers have paid more at the grocery store and elsewhere due to rising inflation in recent months, they have largely taken rising restaurant costs in stride. But recent reports indicate this could be changing as some foodservice businesses have continued to raise prices after covering their own inflation-related costs. Some operators, particularly of fine-dining restaurants, are now receiving pushback from regular guests taking issue with added fees that don’t seem to add up – whether it's the doubling of the cost of a bowl of pasta or an inexplicably higher corkage fee for a bottle of wine. To be sure, in an industry of slim profit margins and amid forecasts of a looming recession, operators may be trying to eke out a financial cushion wherever they can. Just know that you may get some resistance from guests – and you may be pushed into a situation where you are honoring previous prices for loyal patrons or otherwise bending your own rules to keep guests coming back. Prepare your staff by explaining the reasoning behind any significant price increases you have implemented, helping them answer guest questions with transparency, and, where possible, avoiding making price increases that may appear to have a flimsy rationale backing them up. To help make big pricing jumps less necessary, bring as much efficiency to your kitchen as possible – from ingredient selection, to waste management, to portion sizing. For example, many chefs report shopping farmer’s markets regularly to integrate even more local, plant-forward options into the menu where possible, since this can minimize significant price spikes and help a restaurant avoid passing them on to guests.

How much of a price increase is too much for guests? Amid record-setting inflation, it’s a question that many restaurant operators are struggling to answer. A recent study by Revenue Management Solutions may provide some insight into the tipping point. While the research focused on quick-service restaurants, it provides a starting point for assessing price across the menu in other restaurant categories – and an incentive to maximize profitability and value. QSR Magazine reported that RMS analyzed in-store price increases during the second quarter of this year over the second quarter of last year at 25,000 quick-service restaurant locations across the country. It found that net sales hit their highest point at around 13 percent. Beyond that, price increases negatively impacted traffic so much so that net sales began to decline. Further, some locations found that declines in traffic began at around the 6 percent increase mark. While this study represents one data point to consider, it reinforces the need to ensure your individually priced items maximize profitability when it comes to ingredients and labor. Where you have menu items that can easily be bundled to boost check totals, emphasize value – consumers continue to seek it out as a means of justifying food spending.

To be sure, rising inflation and fears of impending recession are making many consumers want to pull back on spending. But the picture may not be as gloomy as it seems for restaurant operators. As a recent CNBC report indicates, while people are feeling less optimistic about their finances, they are still showing willingness to spend money on experiences – including travel, concerts, movies and drinks – that could easily fall into the “discretionary spending” category. So how can restaurant operators keep this going and ward off a slowdown in traffic as we slide toward a possible recession? NPD Group advises focusing on providing value – and that’s not a euphemism for a lower-priced experience but rather one that justifies the price charged. It’s about carefully tracking how people respond to your prices and promotions so you understand at what point your guests will pull back on buying. NPD Group advises not lowering prices if guests remain willing to pay more, for example, and to adjust pricing as levels of various items in your inventory rebound. Give guests reasons to make impulse purchases. Offering memorable experiences of various kinds can do the trick, particularly as ongoing pandemic fatigue gives people a good excuse to make time to be with friends and family. Finally, continue to monitor excess costs and look for ways to trim them so you can make the most of what you do spend.